Cho-Chou Kuo: you and hearing friends, good afternoon! Welcome to the core network and information talk show. Today the United States appeared in China's tire safeguard our most reluctant to see the results, the White House on September 12 Beijing time, announced the United States Barack Obama decided to impose restrictions on tire imports from China Customs, for a period of three years. The White House said in a statement, the first year of tire imports from China will impose tariffs of 35%, the second year of levy 30 %, 25% in the third year levy. in the end is what prompted Obama to make this decision? this decision mean for both countries? how do you view China's counter-measures? Barack Obama which A comprehensive approach is that it has to trade protectionism? If the world have started to implement trade protectionism, will affect the world economic recovery? how to deal with increasingly serious in China's international trade friction? In order to better analyze and discuss these , we have invited to the Ministry of Commerce, Dr. Mei Xinyu, and information users in-depth analysis and safeguard the causes and consequences of this.
Mei Xinyu: Hello everybody netizens.
Cho-Chou Kuo: For Obama Ma's decision, for you, is to be expected or unexpected?
Mei Xinyu: 49% expected, 51% of the unexpected. because the Obama after the U.S. International Trade Commission to submit proposals to implement special security programs Obama, I personally think that 51% of Obama may be rejected, as Bush did, 49% may be agreed. Now I think he chose a 49% probability, But he imposed an additional 20% tariff rate down a percentage point, according to his first year of the program provided 55%, he is now down to 35%, down two years later by 10% to 15% percent. I did not think He reduced the tax rate was 49% chance to guess he might have agreed to implement.
Cho-Chou Kuo: For many Chinese people may have been unexpected, then you see, in the end what the original Yin Aoba horse to make such a decision?
Mei Xinyu: to promote the Obama factor to make such decisions should be multifaceted, on the one hand, when the Obama campaign to win over a large number of labor organizations for his support. To win the support of labor groups promise that he talked a lot and talked a lot full of trade protectionism of speech, when he did many of his campaign speeches have in our business sector raises serious concerns. Of course, his present measures may be compared with the level of campaign speech when a lot of light. While in the U.S. election system, with dry matter after the election when his promise with the campaign are two different things, but there are many points overlap. owed in labor organizations The situation, he more or less always has some, if not yet one hundred percent, a discount is also 50%, 60% is required.
second point, he made such a decision, to win the support of labor organizations, because he is now experiencing difficulties, caused great controversy in exchange for support for health reform vote. naturally expect that Obama was elected president currently high popularity, he was elected the new president's popularity remains high, that under normal circumstances, trade protectionism, he needs this time to his increasing popularity forces, increasing the demand for support is not particularly strong. The problem is Obama he encountered the health insurance program through the problem, To do this he needs additional support forces, such that the establishment of trade protectionism. Although in the eyes of many areas are garbage, garbage he wants to draw it. From a more profound point of view, I personally think that Obama These decisions, some of the responsibility the United States in full swing in China, he should be a part of the American forces, the heart of the empire deep thinking. normal economic thinking is that, a crisis in China in the corresponding soft and hard power to enhance a lot, United States a lot of hard and soft power weakened, and this time I am a lot of demand growth in China, China in particular need of help, I might be less trouble some disputes with China, this is the normal economic thinking. But if the thought of Empire It may be completely the opposite. He believes that he as the biggest potential competitors in China, it is precisely because the crisis has increased the relative strength of China, he felt more strongly motivated, more intense desire to want to crack down on China, trade disputes can be the means used, I think to some extent, the role of such imperial thinking.
his standing U.S. position that such measures have imperial thinking is a matter of course, if I were American, I will not hesitate to put all competitors on the U.S. containment measures. But the problem is he chose a very appropriate starting point is very unreasonable for a breakthrough.
Cho-Chou Kuo: In fact, this approach from Obama's point of view, He may be considered more political and less economic to consider.
Mei Xinyu: Yes, China is obviously a very innocent.
Cho-Chou Kuo: Obama says he made the decision is in line with WTO principles, these decisions do you think he meets WTO rules, or when we first signed the WTO agreement?
Mei Xinyu: Investigation special safeguard measures, the WTO provisions which have such provisions, but the implementation of safeguard measures Prerequisites to this case is incomplete in terms of. the implementation of safeguard measures, China's imports in the short term with very rapid growth, and it is the growth of such imports on domestic tire industry constitutes a damage. but That is, the United States, the growth of tire imports from China, 11% growth in tire demand in the current year compared to the United States, 11% of what is very mild. just in the U.S. customs statistics, China's fastest-growing imports of tires a year in 2007, the year the number of their tires imported from China is 41.85, the amount of increase of 35.97%, it is the year, the U.S. tire industry as a whole profitable. another year of growth did not, he is at a loss, so the facts that they encountered in the U.S. tire industry, the problem is not caused by the rapid growth of Chinese imports. U.S. tire industry, local production of tires and tire imports from China are different market segments in the wind phase and no cattle can not compete. the United States The market is divided into two parts, the first is the original market, the market is auto factory original. and then part of tire replacement, you have bought a car which replaced the tires. replacement tire market is divided into three levels, the first tier market , second-tier market, the third tier markets. The first tier market is the high-end, brand name, the third tier is relatively low. The U.S. is a large manufacturer OEM, that the original market, and because of tire replacement market first, the second echelon, but imports from China are concentrated in the third tier market, between no competition. so his decision is quite unjustified.
Cho-Chou Kuo: Many people think the economy is the United States before big problem, the United States have great demand in China and hope to cooperate with him in China, so many things to consider also the interests and feelings of the Chinese. Now just to see signs of recovery the U.S. economy, Obama to turn against a person, it is difficult to say that America is a responsible big country.
Mei Xinyu: Not really, more accurately, even in the U.S. economy is the worst time of his trade protectionism that is not weak, but greatly enhanced . Do not forget to buy American when the terms are adopted, it was his time of crisis in full swing through downtown. He was by no means see some benefits, immediately turn against people. U.S. economic upturn is still weakened, mainly reflected in the asset markets, the real sector is very much worse. In particular, as the job market, about 9.7% unemployment rate, the highest level in many years, away from the real recovery is very much worse.
Cho-Chou Kuo : United States to take such measures, on the relevant industries in China in the end what kind of impact?
Mei Xinyu: the impact of China's export enterprises, relatively large, especially for the Chinese tire market, foreign investment enterprises, as foreign investors tire business, we have two-thirds of the tire exports to the U.S. are foreign production. and then a scale is not too big, not establish their own brand image, the main strategy is to rely on price competition in business. on these companies to levy 35% punitive tariffs, the price competitiveness he completely lost. The loss of price competitiveness, price competitiveness, he lost he had no other competitive factors. This two-tire market in the United States from Thailand, Brazil, the tires of these countries imports increased rapidly, particularly in 2007 from Brazil and other countries, imports increased by 42%, compared with the growth rate of imports from China even higher 0.96 percent. In this case, because U.S. restrictions on Chinese tires, I would like to Many had turned to Chinese consumers will buy tires in Brazil, Thailand, the production of tires. because these people are not too high income levels, the sensitivity of their prices are very high.
Cho-Chou Kuo: This decision may be the employment impact of China's hundreds of thousands of people, which is behind hundreds of thousands of people hundreds of thousands of families, each family there is a fifty-five million people, the impact is huge. United States to take such measures, although its there benefit the industry, but also a great tire retailers also negative, the U.S. is not also a great negative impact?
Mei Xinyu: such a measure for the employment impact of China is quite large, this part of the export Tire exports to the United States 22 billion dollars, almost directly related to the employment of thousands of people you just said. Even if this part of the United States imported about to give him twenty thousand jobs, but the resulting reduction in imports of his driving, he imports employment in related industries may be hundreds of thousands of reducing consumption of a cancellation, a net loss of U.S. jobs may cause eighty. Of course the problem here, he was able to keep the employment of the population, the political lobbying power of the American Iron and Steel Association is the price.
Cho-Chou Kuo: Yes, so he actually still a little more from political considerations.
Mei Xinyu: not to say which side is more rational, but behold one more political lobbying power.
Cho-Chou Kuo : We want to know the measures taken by the United States on the tire, is not it will trigger a chain reaction? is not on other industries, such as the textile industry is now just around the corner, there is the steel industry, agricultural fields and food industry will not produce a series of chain reaction? whether caused other countries to take measures against China?
Mei Xinyu: This is not to say that will trigger a chain reaction, the U.S. launched the first high tide of trade protectionism, has set off a chain reaction that has been reflected in the United States very clear. In June of this year, the United States within ten days of our steel products out of the three with anti-. We know that trade between China and the United States, in 1950, after the Korean War in the middle of a total of 22 years. Nixon visited China in 1972, trade between China and the U.S. resumed, up to now, 37 years, 37 years a lot of U.S. trade disputes with us, but within ten days do not exist three cases, so the chain reaction is a chain reaction , but not the tires safeguard the starting point of a chain reaction, but the other starting off a chain reaction, is a part of a link.
Cho-Chou Kuo: So we all feared it would lead to more, including other countries More will be on China to take such measures, so I think in this case, the Chinese counter-measures, said Ye Hao, Ye Hao retaliatory measures more important.
Mei Xinyu: China has his counter-measures the importance of counter-measures in China may not have been taken to restore the previous trade disputes and restrictions, but he can deter the forces of protectionism and trading partners, forcing them to be careful so as to reduce protectionist measures encountered in the future. Our trade counter this, or retaliatory trade measures, more of a focus on the future rather than focusing on the past. retaliatory trade measures we use too little, people think that pre-emptive strike against China, you will not cost a thing , is such a mentality.
Cho-Chou Kuo: So many countries before the implementation of a number of trade measures against China, the Chinese seem no great reaction, no strong retaliation, countries on the implementation of China's more unscrupulous a variety of trade protection policies.
Mei Xinyu: Yes, China's trade retaliatory measures very small, on Sino-US economic and trade relations, have talked about the U.S. resumption of normal trade relations to date is 37 years time, 37 years time, particularly since the late 80s, the average annual U.S. goods out of China, there is always a double-digit trade disputes, and even a little more. But China's trade retaliation against the United States so far this 37 out of a total number? If not this time is together, it was 1983, 1983, the United States announced restrictions on imports of Chinese textiles, China announced a list of trade retaliation, to reduce purchases of U.S. wool and other things, inferior race, in retaliation. in Here, the Chinese did not take retaliatory trade measures had.
But trade retaliation is not necessary? I think it is necessary, trade retaliation itself is not our purpose, we are a trading nation and the world trade dependence is the highest of any major country, and for us to engage in comprehensive trade station does not meet our interests. our retaliatory trade measures, that the international trading system is our peace, but peace needs to be armed, you can not say that we Chinese people love peace, to show our love of peace we all demobilized People's Liberation Army, I am afraid we demobilization, and the same evening we will fall into war. Similarly, the trading system, our trading system to the peace, we need to trade retaliation as a weapon. Chairman Mao taught us one, seek unity to fight, you can unite into. to compromise seeking unity, the unity of death.
Cho-Chou Kuo: so many years, other countries on the implementation of a number of trade protection in China measures, we have very little trade retaliation against them, why is it so?
Mei Xinyu: may be a number of reasons, our country and for your people have the tradition of a lawsuit seems to be very unlucky, very aggressive bad luck thing. another one, I think I may have some objective factors, our relatively high trade dependence, fear of playing a trade war to our great loss, too much. we have a friendly and international friendship, there is a distinction between. We are about friendship, but friendship, unity does not mean we have to give up their positions and their own interests, but precisely in this regard, we have a lot of misunderstanding. I read a novel, he describes the lives of officers and men of Korean volunteers, have been He can be inspiring, but before that no one think highly of this sick man of Asia, but here no one can say that after the sick man of East Asia. But had the president's visit to China-US diplomatic relations Kate, Kate's visit to China in order to create a good atmosphere, the play was on the radio, Heilongjiang province lost and 60 million square kilometers. in the Boxer war that year, the Czar of Russia sent troops to 170,000 fully occupied the northeast, and always has tens of thousands of Chinese people rushed to the opposite of Heihe in Heilongjiang drown. to commemorate those we Heihe set up a memorial, tells us the loss of territory and the massacre of us, to see if everyone felt deeply shocked and preserve our independence and freedom is much important. But the museum to the present, often under pressure from above from the official We talk about Sino-Russian friendship should close off the hall.
Cho-Chou Kuo: thinking of some of our leaders in how to treat external contacts, how to look at the friendship with foreign countries and so there is a big misunderstanding, indeed so. we go back to the safeguard case, the Commerce Department said yesterday, in accordance with Chinese law and WTO rules, some originating in the United States imports of automotive products and chicken products to start anti-dumping and countervailing duty filing review process. how do you view this in China counter-measures? Is there a better counter-measures? such as pork and beans to take measures for its?
Mei Xinyu: Ministry of Commerce did not mention a word safeguard the tire is because the United States imported cars and chickens relevant subsidies to domestic industries caused a loss, so should the requirements of related domestic industries to start anti-dumping and countervailing duty filing review process. more than it is a separate case, but in this case the announced time, Obama announced tires and the next day. From the amount of goods involved in this case is basically now it is the same, so we all know that this is the case of tires and anti-system. why not say so, this talk was justified, advantage and with restraint, but also on both sides of the case for the future through reconciliation and create opportunities. Such a case is to start the opportunity, does not amount to full implementation, in accordance with the anti-dumping procedures, first of all start filing procedures, but also by the expert review, vote.
Cho-Chou Kuo: How long this process?
Mei Xinyu: This process requires both sides to negotiations, such a regulation to both sides the opportunity to solve the problem. We put the words of the WTO, in accordance with the WTO dispute settlement procedures, the complainant first consultation after the proposed consultation to answer within ten days whether to accept the request for consultations, within 30 days to conduct consultations. If the consultations do not result, applying to set up an expert group began to review the case. even set up an expert group review the case, the full court at any time can be made a party to the mediation and regulation, that use this regard, he is to each other to create an opportunity to step down and mediation.
should be said that the Austrian safeguard tire Alabama announced the approval of this measure, the Chinese and the U.S. are conducting negotiations and consultations, not without negotiations and consultations. The reason that Obama should announce the measures, saying only that the position and conditions of both relatively large difference, can not reach a consensus. have such counter-measures of trade, to a certain extent, to the strength of opposition to the United States have an account, and finally to adopt a more reasonable solutions. the worst is to make suffer, but let us alone than in the U.S. aspects of economic damage, but also damage to national cohesiveness is stronger. This can be a deterrent for future cases, so they do not then the unscrupulous trade disputes initiated by the Chinese. I know that some countries who advocate restrictions on Chinese goods, in a speech in public that is to say, we limit the imports of goods in China, but we export to China has not diminished but rather increased, Why do not we have restrictions on Chinese goods? If you have seen all of the countries, angered the Chinese, the loss China's interests, China will let you pay the price, so unscrupulous that he would not take measures to do?
Cho-Chou Kuo: For this measure we present only the filing review process, but the U.S. has begun to implement , and we are filing to the final implementation of the review process needed if a long process, a counter-force is not big enough is not it?
Mei Xinyu: let the United States was behind it will pay the price of deterrence, it is not already the price, but you know what you are going to pay the price. trade retaliation is the most important measures of deterrence, as if we are out of a retaliatory foul smells, then it depends on how implemented as soon as possible. If The purpose of trade retaliation I struggle to be customized based on solidarity, I want to see is its deterrent effect.
Cho-Chou Kuo: Do you think this measure is quite properly.
Mei Xinyu: It should be said is to take countermeasures in the fastest. Of course, if we have to be done quickly if there are ways to understand that I announce the full implementation of U.S. trade retaliation from now imports from the United States put pressure on, and I do not Anti-dumping and countervailing investigation, the review of direct retaliatory announced.
Cho-Chou Kuo: For example, soybeans, pork and the like.
Mei Xinyu: But this becomes a trade war directly, we stand for we have to protect our legitimate interests of domestic industry, we are acting in accordance with the law and not engage in trade war measures to fulfill the law, domestic law and international law, the protection of our rights. if it is to blindly fast, then, not to solve the problem, but to vent their anger in the.
Cho-Chou Kuo: The current situation seems to be that if other countries do not fear a trade war with China, while China is very afraid of a trade war with other countries, especially the people felt that China is always worried about any problems, but other countries like how you think the implementation of trade protectionism, and never worry about a trade war.
Mei Xinyu: There are two reasons, first , China is the world's highest trade dependence on big powers, that is, an all losses suffered by China trade war would be relatively large. Secondly, the reason people feel this way, China's political system and political system is not with others the same. people's political system, people can openly shouting Members, more than anyone else would be able to attract the eye more, talk big without effort, saying it would not affect provincial effort, in order to attract others attention, then how to say how sensational. But China is not , China speak is to pay attention to every word of honor, he very carefully every word public statement, of course, a number of internal discussions to take measures to better. According to China's political system and state tradition, every word of the government's external position should be pay attention to cash, which means that not the same, so the impression is so.
Cho-Chou Kuo: It may be that problems do exist. you judge, this time the tires safeguard could trigger a Sino-US trade war you?
Mei Xinyu: I think the full trade war less likely, since both are currently full trade war does not show the will to fight. Like Obama he was engaged in a tire safeguard his One goal of hoping to win more votes in support, support for his health insurance reform. He talked about such a sentence, if his health insurance through the program, even if he's president only when he feels very term value. at this point to engage in front of a trade war with China, but he also needs China in many ways, I think a trade war is not appropriate for him, he has no such intention. China certainly has no such desire, and initiatives from China, about rational, beneficial, festival, also failed to disclose that it is trade retaliation, the official statement did not disclose that it is trade retaliation, and in other aspects he is keep them under the stairs stage. Although Obama announced the implementation of safeguard China's tire, but the rate of levy additional tariffs of 20 percentage points lower, he actually wanted to do something for China indicate that the intensification of this conflict do not want to be too strong the point.
Cho-Chou Kuo: you judge the tires and the last case of what may appear the result?
Mei Xinyu: The best result is reached between mediation, mediation can be a good two cases. the worst outcome, two cases are put into practice, you give me a hand, I played you a leg, but the first slap in the face of the person asking to play each other, knowing no longer dare to rush lesson handouts. to my feeling, I think the possibility of 55% behind, in front of a possibility 45%.
Cho-Chou Kuo: Actually, we have seen from Obama came out a lot of policies, including the former said to stimulate the economy out of the Buy American measures goods, now safeguard from Obama's policy can determine the overall direction of U.S. trade protectionism has been?
Mei Xinyu: can not say, what is trade protectionism, he was on all imports are implementation of the very strong constraints, from the eighties of last century the tariff law, he collected all imports are very high tariffs, and that is the comprehensive trade protectionism. Now his prosecution of the case number is very large, but he is a class commodity, even a few varieties of commodities in the restrictions, saying the case is looked at more than every few days there are always things to, but the real impact was not a case of people of all imports all down, and he now far from comprehensive trade protectionism. This is the case with the tires and, if in accordance with our tire exports to the United States last year, 2.2 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 2.2 billion that we have more than one trillion U.S. dollars last year, what proportion of total exports? in the United States a few trillion What percentage of imports? trillions of total imports in the United States in the proportion of it is one-thousandth. say it is a comprehensive trade war, then still relatively far worse.
Cho-Chou Kuo: We determine the not this one, there are other series, from the economic crisis shows more and more to the US-led Americas, Europe and other countries, the tendency of trade protection more and more serious, at least we can see that they tend to become increasingly serious. Now this case will affect the world economic recovery?
Mei Xinyu: its world economic recovery is certainly an additional interference, as this investment in his business again, but also carry out the production, he I want to consider additional investment and production will encounter trade protectionism, cover up my factory, target market can not be sold. This time the tires safeguard, the second largest U.S. tire manufacturer, he jumped out to a strong public opposition, he There are so many factory in the world, the largest, most modern, most advanced factory in Kunshan, and has just put into operation only a year or two, Kunshan plant investment projects in accordance with his original agreement with the Kunshan Municipal Government, all products of this factory to be exported, the factory was running less than two years now, put the export market is blocked, to see him so that other manufacturers would dare to invest? so he is indecisive, a two, all industries are indecisive, you recovery where to start? approach we advocate is to reduce the uncertainty in the business, but to increase and improve his uncertainty.
Cho-Chou Kuo: U.S. measures would not only harm China's interests, it also undermines the United States their own interests, it also undermines investment in U.S. business interests in China.
Mei Xinyu: United States 37 years with our normal trade relations, hundreds of trade disputes. but to my memory of them, like this time of trade dispute, the U.S. related industries is almost the case against one-sided was the first time. It is this point, I also think that if Obama and some of United States forces to punish China, he chose a breakthrough is really a problem . If a similar motivation for our future to our competitors and do some, I hope that Obama will not repeat the mistake in it.
Cho-Chou Kuo: We learn from experience, we can feel the years faced more and more and more and more serious kinds of trade frictions, in the end is what caused this kind of trade friction? how we fundamentally solve, or alleviate this problem?
Mei Xinyu: I want to feel more and more trade disputes, the question we want a comprehensive look at. First Article, the increase in trade disputes is the negative effects of the achievements, we can think of, if not in China's competitiveness greatly enhanced, if not the rapid growth of Chinese exports and expansion, there are so many trade disputes it? not have so many trade disputes. brought to such a story, we had the Korean War, we put the United States military out of the water of the United Nations, the United States for many years After the condemnation of Chinese aggression. results in a foreign country, an old Chinese heard angrily condemned the Chinese invasion of the reports, too many cases in cross-flow, my life heard of someone in a foreign country called me sick man of Asia, I did not think I'm living in China can hear people condemn aggression Therefore, the small size of China's trade exports, trade disputes do not, but I am afraid that is not enviable. It only means that we are made in China and the achievements of China's exports brought about negative effects, but also recognized in China from developing to developed the whole process of the country, China will remain the world's position among the best in trade disputes, as it is in the international market share expansion, and other trading partners trade more natural. we want to completely avoid this result is not possible , we can goal is to minimize, but not eliminate, this is a little.
Second, more and more friction with the impact of the period. We need to do now, trying to make the dispute over Buzhi Yu more, leading to collapse of the entire trading system, but we can not expect to completely eliminate such disputes, the dispute can not expect no increase in times of crisis.
Third, in dealing with trade disputes, I think the most important work we do, advance prevention-based, supplemented by subsequent response. At present we deal with in the post more on the use of energy, but lackluster in prevention is a look, unlike the later reports that method. in advance to prevent us to do a lot more than exports detection, early warning mechanisms for trade and export marketing efforts in foreign countries we build our united front against trade protectionism have done a lot of effort. we accept the number of foreign students is also significant growth, this is our Precaution efforts.
Cho-Chou Kuo: I want to solve or improve the situation there are several, first of all we must not be afraid to seek unity through struggle, can not be afraid. another one, it may be good and full use of WTO rules, I think we use many of the rules is not good enough, because the rules are set by the Western countries themselves, they use the handy, we are very lacking in this regard. and then one with our domestic industrial upgrading and adjustment is also a great relationship, if we high added value products are, or what foreign producers can not, I think a lot of trade friction will be relatively small.
Mei Xinyu: Yes, if we can not only master the manufacturing sector, but also to grasp the flow and so on session, I think our business in the fight against trade disputes, the anti-risk abilities will certainly be greatly enhanced.
Cho-Chou Kuo: Because of time, we end this interview, Carrie Willis, once again thank everyone made a guest Cho-Chou Kuo excellent analysis, thank you friends again.
Mei Xinyu: Thank you for the care users, please believe, the Chinese government will strive to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises.
Cho-Chou Kuo: Carrie Willis is form a state on behalf of the relevant departments, ah, the case for the tires and the back should be said that China is quite favorable, reasonable, restrained, it is quite appropriate.
Mei Xinyu: I think it is reasonable, beneficial, there are sections This is the time of Chairman Mao in the war of provocation and friction response to the KMT proposed guidelines, I would like to use in our trading partners, with the passing is also very appropriate.
Cho-Chou Kuo: This interview is over, goodbye.
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